The Most Doomed Country: Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia's historical identity has been inseparable from its dominance in the oil industry, contributing significantly to its economy, budget, export earnings, and GDP. As recently as 2018, a substantial portion of the government's budget, export earnings, and GDP were tied to the petroleum sector. The nation's vast oil reserves have afforded it geopolitical power and influence, allowing it to sway oil prices and impact global economies.

However, this dependence on oil is contingent on a finite resource. Despite its large oil reserves, Saudi Arabia's influence is closely linked to the sustainability of its oil-centric economy. As global trends shift toward renewable energy, Saudi Arabia's oil-based power is diminishing. Traditional oil customers like India, China, and many European nations are diversifying their energy sources, weakening Saudi Arabia's leverage.

Adapting to this evolving landscape is imperative for Saudi Arabia's future. Historical context reveals its rise from disparate tribes to a modern nation. An alliance between the House of Saud and the Wahhabi movement laid the groundwork for the nation's establishment, with control over Mecca and Medina adding to its significance.

In the 21st century, Saudi Arabia grapples with uncertainty. Global energy transformation challenges its oil-centric power. The nation's key will be diversifying its economy, transitioning to sustainable sources of power, and embracing reform. Vision 2030, an ambitious reform initiative, aims to stimulate economic growth, diversify the economy, and empower citizens. However, these reforms face resistance from conservative factions and external tensions.

The Iranian Revolution in 1979 altered Saudi Arabia's regional dynamics. The rise of Iran's Shiite Islamist regime posed an external threat, leading to a history of ideological discord and proxy conflicts. Saddam Hussein's Iraq briefly buffered Saudi Arabia from Iran's influence, but the Gulf War of 1990-1991 shifted dynamics. Iraq's invasion by the US in 2003 strained Saudi-Iran relations further, instigating proxy conflicts in Syria and Libya.

Yemen became another flashpoint. Saudi Arabia intervened militarily to counter Iran-backed Houthi rebels, fearing encirclement and oil disruption. This highlighted Saudi Arabia's willingness to protect its strategic interests.

Yet, the drone attacks on Saudi oil refineries in 2019 exposed vulnerabilities in its oil-dependent economy. The kingdom's future hinges on diversification, social reform, and balancing alliances amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. As Saudi Arabia navigates these challenges, its ability to transition to sustainable prosperity while accommodating religious traditions and global expectations will define its path forward.